MARKETS
Research, not signals.
Markets are where I practice probability, uncertainty, and decision-making. The public work is the research desk: what I am looking at, what I tried, what I got wrong, what changed.
This is not a signals service.
Probability and uncertainty
Most of the useful work is naming what is known, what is guessed, and what would change the guess. I am less interested in certainty than in a clean statement of odds.
Risk
Risk is not volatility as a slogan. It is what you can lose, how fast, and whether you will still be able to think afterward. Position, time, and temperament belong in the same notebook.
Sector rotation
Leadership moves. Some of that is cycle, some of it is narrative, some of it is liquidity looking for a story. I want a way to watch the handoff without pretending I called it.
Macro
Rates, growth, policy, and the mood that sits on top of the data. Macro is a weather report for the rest of the desk — useful when it stays humble.
Market structure
How the game is actually played: sessions, flows, instruments, the difference between a price and a trade you can get. Structure is the part of the map that does not care about my opinion.
Experiments and tools
I build small tools when a question keeps repeating. The point is not a product line. It is to see whether a process survives contact with new days.
AI-assisted research
Agents can gather, compare, and argue with me. They cannot take the risk. The interesting work is the collaboration: a machine that challenges the story I want to be true.
Independent work
Other market projects live on their own. This page stays the research desk. Links, if they earn a place, will be labeled as independent.